Democratic backsliding and the utility of turnover elections

President John Dramani Mahama delivered the first State of the Nation Address (SONA) of his second presidency last Thursday.

The address touched on several important matters on governance and the economy.

I was struck by this statement – “Yes, we are a nation troubled on many fronts, but we have many blessings, among which is a now firmly established democracy that, for all its imperfections, has enabled four (4) peaceful transfers of power in our land.

Nestled in a sub-region often plagued by strife and political instability, there is good reason to take sober satisfaction that these successive peaceful power transfers have become routine.”

Turnover elections

I agree with the President in stating that, given the happenings in the sub-region, Ghana is in an enviable position.

There is much to celebrate about elections, especially peaceful turnover ones.

The positives are many - continued political stability, investor confidence, peace and security, the safety of the lives of citizens, etc. 

More importantly, it is critical when an election outcome gains the loser’s immediate consent.

This is why Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, presidential candidate for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) earned a lot of praise and respect for his quick concession in the 2024 election. 

I recently had a conversation with a good friend in the governance space. As we discussed challenges to Ghana’s democracy, I raised this question – “what is the utility of elections, especially turnovers, in the effort to halt democratic backsliding?”

This is a question I raised with panelists at a democracy backsliding event last January in Washington, D.C.

To put it differently, how much longer can we count on elections, especially peaceful turnovers as the key ingredient that holds a country’s democracy together, without engaging in meaningful and necessary institutional reforms?

Signs of backsliding

Are there signs of democratic backsliding in Ghana? Yes and let me highlight these four.

First, our elections. Even as we tout them as reflective of our democratic credentials, it is worth noting what they have also become characterised by.

Our increasing mistrust of the election management body which is further exacerbated by deepening political polarisation was laid bare in the lead-up to the 2024 election. In election years, which resulted in a turnover, here are the percentages of Ghanaians who expressed “a lot” of trust in the Electoral Commission – 28 per cent (July 2016, CDD-Ghana, pre-election survey); 37 per cent (October 2016, CDD-Ghana, pre-election survey) and 10 per cent (Afrobarometer Round 10, 2024). 

The last point about our election – our sentiments are still mixed about how free and fair they are. What percentage of Ghanaians rate elections are completely free and fair, looking at the ones that resulted in turnover?

Take a look – 47 per cent (2000 election, as per Afrobarometer, Round 2, 2002); 39 per cent (2008 election as per Afrobarometer Round 5, 2012) and 66 per cent (2016 election as per Afrobarometer Round 7, 2017).

Second, the democracy deficit- the growing gap between how much Ghanaians support democracy and how satisfied they are with its practice must concern all stakeholders.

In 1999 (Afrobarometer Round 1), support for democracy was 23 percentage points higher than satisfaction.

By 2008 (Afrobarometer Round 4), the gap narrowed to only two percentage points only to widen again to 24 percentage points by 2024 (Afrobarometer Round 10). 

Third, the crisis of confidence in our institutions cannot be overlooked.

Not only are Ghanaians expressing extremely low levels of trust in institutions, but the growing perception also that they are corrupt further complicates the crisis.

A close examination of data from 10 rounds of the Afrobarometer survey shows very disturbing patterns about our institutions. 

Fourth, the 2024 Democracy Report draws one of the most comprehensive democracy datasets (Varieties of Democracy, V-Dem) and comes from the V-Dem Institute.

The critical worrying sign from this report is the changing course of Ghana’s trajectory post the 1992 transition.

The country has moved from Electoral Autocracy (1993) to Electoral Democracy (1997-2002) to Liberal Democracy (2003-2014) and back to Electoral Democracy (2015-2023).

We lost the period of liberal democracy.

This is worrying because as per the report, a period of liberal democracy is characterised by “judicial and legislative constraints on the executive along with the protection of civil liberties and equality before the law.”

Halting democratic backsliding

Elections are necessary. Peaceful turnover elections are critical to the sustenance of Ghana’s democracy.

Elections as the method for choosing leaders enjoy 82 per cent support and party turnover 61 per cent (Afrobarometer Round 10, 2024) among Ghanaians.

However, they are not sufficient.

There is an urgent need to arrest the deterioration observed in several parts of the country’s democracy architecture.

To do that, deep institutional reforms are needed now to first, restore trust and confidence in institutions and second to effectively fight institutional corruption.

In my opinion, we can’t keep relying on elections alone to halt democratic backsliding.

The writer is the Project Director, Democracy Project