Which direction will Central Region swing?

For a region known for an impudent voting pattern, the Central Region certainly has caught the eyes of most political parties.

The political parties, particularly the incumbent National Democratic Congress (NDC), the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the Progressive People’s Party (PPP), are making strenuos efforts and have made countless stops in the region to campaign for votes.

The NDC had its campaign launch in the regional capital, Cape Coast to strategically reiterate the region’s importance in  the race to the flagstaff house.

Region can’t be ignored

And rightly so, you cannot ignore the region. The Central Region, its leaders and people,  educated and uneducated understand politics.

They care less. If you have been  in government long enough to have done something good for them and then failed, they do not care, they would vote you out.

And so unlike some regions which are noted as being strongholds of some of the political parties, the Central Region touts itself as the major swing region in Ghana’s politics and has been described by some political pundits as the decider of who takes the presidential seat.

When the region says they will not vote for you, no amount of campaigns will make them do so. They call themselves the kingmakers.

And indeed in the previous elections, any party that managed a win in the region eventually took the flagstaff house.

History

In the 1996 election, the region had 17 parliamentary seats.

Out of the 17, four of the seats were for the National Convention Party (NCP) while the NDC occupied comfortably the 13 others.

The four seats won by the NCP were the Abura Asebu-Kwamankese, Cape Coast, Assin North and the Awutu Senya constituencies.

2000 Election

In 2000 , the game changed. Presenting a son of the land, the NDC thought it would be easier to sway the region’s votes to their side. But ,alas that was not to be.

Then candidate, Professor John Evans Atta Mills had it tough with the NPP’s John Agyekum Kufuor.

President Kufuor for instance,polled 26,413 in the Cape Coast constituency while Professor Atta Mills polled 12,841 votes.

In the Assin North, a traditional stronghold of the NPP, President Kufuor polled 17,634 while Prof. Atta Mills polled 16,300 votes, while in the Abura Asebu Kwamankese constituency, Prof. Atta Mills had 14,058 votes while President Kufour had 13,466 votes. It was a boot for boot bantam.

Again, in the Komenda-Edina Eguafo Abrem constituency, Prof. Atta Mills had 18,443 while President Kufour had 12,071.

Eventually it was a shared cake. The NPP managed to capture 8 out of the 17 seats.

But President Kufour was a stronger candidate in the region. He polled 259,367 representing 49,67 per cent of the votes in the region while Prof Atta Mills polled 227,234 votes representing 43.51 per cent of the votes in the region.

And so President Kufour went to the Flagstaff House.

Skirt and blouse

Voters in the region are a bit complicated. The term “Skirt and blouse” voting was coined from the region when voters told reporters during campaigns that they would vote for one presidential candidate and reject the parliamentary candidate or vice versa.

In the 2000 election some constituencies did exactly that. Voting for one presidential candidate for one reason or the other and rejecting the party’s parliamentary candidate or voting the parliamentary candidate and rejecting the presidential candidate.

In three constituencies including the Agona East, Awutu Senya and Effutu, President Kufour won the election but the NDC parliamentary candidates won the seats.

2004 Election

In the 2004 election, the Central Region again overwhelmingly endorsed the NPP against its own Prof. Atta Mills.

President Kufour won 415,813 votes representing 58.80 per cent of the votes leaving Prof. Atta Mills with 275,415 votes representing 38.94 per cent of the votes.

The region further shattered the NDC’s parliamentary camp leaving them with two out of the 19 seats.

The two seats were the Ekumfi constituency, Prof. Atta Mills’ hometown which was won by Mr George Kuntu Blankson and the Twifo-Atti Mokwa constituency which was held by Madam Elizabeth Amoah Tetteh.

The other seat, the KEEA seat, was won by Dr Paa Kwesi Nduom then of the Convention People’s Party who the NPP declared support for and refused to field an NPP candidate.

The NDC seemed to be in disarray.

2008 Election

But the 2008 election was  a different story. The voters in the region demanded a change. For them the NPP has done what it could and it was time for them to go.

The NDC’s same Prof. Atta Mills against NPP’s Akufo-Addo.

Prof. Atta Mills won the region by 345,126 representing 50.58 per cent of the votes while Nana Addo polled 313,665 votes in the region.

For the parliamentary seats the NDC catapulted from two seats in 2004 to 11 seats in the 2008 election, leaving eight for pick up by the NPP.

The region had swung for the NDC in 2008.  And so the NDC’s Prof. Atta Mills now took his seat at the presidency.

2012 Election

The region had 23 constituencies for the 2012 election. Out of these the ruling NDC won 16 seats while the NPP took the seven others.

The people fell for President Mahama as he stepped into the shoes of Prof Atta Mills and voted overwhelmingly for the NDC.

Strongholds

There are some major strongholds of the parties despite the swings.

The NPP for instance has the Denkyira area which has two constituencies now, the Upper Denkyira East and West constituencies and the Assin North now re-demarcated Assin Central held by Kennedy Agyepong as strongholds.

The Twifo Atti Mokwa seat for instance and the Ekumfi seat have never been won by the NPP.

2016

Going by the region’s tradition, they would certainly have voted to change government because the region swings every eight years.

But the 2016 election is a bit complicated in the region. Voters in Cape Coast for instance have seen two major projects, the highly politicised Kotokuraba market and the Cape Coast stadium being done.

These among some other infrastructure developments in other towns are being touted in the NDC’s campaign.

The NPP gained major inroads in some strongholds of the NDC and are likely in 2016 to retain all its strongholds. The Cape Coast North constituency being held by the NDC is also a possibility for the NPP.

 Elvis Morris Donkoh of the NPP has also worked hard and might win the Abura Asebu-Kwamankese seat for the NPP.

The NDC is likely to retain Agona East held by Ms Pokua Sawyerr.

Cape Coast South might be taken by NDC’s Kweku Ricketts.

The Central Regional Secretary of the NPP, Mr Kwamena Duncan has said that the NDC is already feeling jittery about the Central Region.

He said last year when the NPP began its campaign, they had targeted 16 seats but indicated that with what was on the ground now the party could take all the seats.

“The dynamics have changed and with the “tornado of change going on in the country we can take all the seats,” he stated.

There are some seats we have not won before but even those seats; Twifo Atti Mokwa and Ekumfi are likely to fall this time,” he said.

He said the party would ride on the popularity of its presidential candidate to win the seats.

He said all things being equal the NPP would conquer the region and go ahead to win the national election.

But the Regional Director of Elections of the NDC, Mr Yaw Asiedu thinks otherwise.

He noted that though the party had initially targeted 20 seats in the region he believes the NDC could take all 23 seats.

He observed that constituencies which were the NPP’s strongholds would certainly come tumbling down because of the candidates there.

“The two Denkyira seats we believe will be won considering the enormous developmental projects there,” he said.

He pointed out that all major roads in Denkyira were being asphalted. “Other infrastructural projects like the community day schools are themselves campaigning for us,” he added.

Mr Asiedu said some strongholds of the NPP had parliamentarians who had been there for three terms and the people were tired of them and wanted change; “We are taking all those seats,” he stated.

The Central Region may still be the kingmaker, but the race is close.