Guinea: What CDD's Afrobarometer survey found before the elections

A survey conducted before Guinea's last presidential election showed that Guineans strongly prefer democracy to any other regime but want
the president limited to two terms.

The survey conducted by the Centre for Democratic Development (CDD), Afrobarometer and Stat View International (SVI) indicated that despite widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s performance, Guineans strongly prefer democracy to any alternative form of governance, the most recent Afrobarometer survey showed.

Barely a year after claiming a third term in office amidst widespread opposition, President Alpha Condé has been detained since a coup d’état last Sunday.

Coup leader Lt. Col. Mamady Doumbouya has cited pervasive poverty and corruption as reasons for the takeover.

Afrobarometer findings from late 2019 show majorities of Guineans believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction, that the level of corruption has increased, and that the government is doing a poor job of fighting corruption.

Dissatisfaction with the country’s economic conditions and citizens’ personal living conditions has increased, as have negative ratings of the government’s economic performance and provision of essential public services.

Only three in 10 citizens are satisfied with the way their democracy is working.

But the study also shows that most Guineans endorse elections as the best way to choose leaders and that citizens’ preference for democracy has  remained consistently high over the years.

Key findings

• More than three-fourths (77%) of Guineans prefer democracy to any other form of government. Support for democracy has remained high since Afrobarometer began its surveys in Guinea in 2013 (Figure 1).
• Eight in 10 Guineans (82%) endorse free, fair, and honest elections as the best way to choose leaders, including 57% who “strongly agree” with this view (Figure 2).

- A similar majority (76%) want the president to serve a maximum of two terms in office.

• Only four in 10 Guineans (40%) describe the country as “a full democracy” or “a
  democracy with minor problems” (Figure 3).

- Only three in 10 (29%) say they are “fairly satisfied” or “very satisfied” with the way

• democracy works, a sharp decline from 2017 (56%) after consistent improvement
  from 2013 (39%).
• Almost two-thirds of Guineans (64%) say the country is heading in “the wrong
  direction.”
• The perception that “most” or “all” officials at the Presidency are corrupt has
  increased from 26% in 2013 to 47% (Figure 4).

- Almost two-thirds (63%) of citizens say the level of corruption in the country increased during the year preceding the survey, a 25-percentage-point increase compared to 2015 (38%).

- Eight in 10 citizens (81%) say the government is performing “fairly badly” or “very badly” in fighting corruption, a 27-percentage-point increase compared to 2013 (54%).

Afrobarometer surveys

Afrobarometer is a non-partisan African survey research network that provides reliable data on citizens’ experiences and evaluations of democracy, governance, and quality of life.Eight rounds of surveys have been completed in up to 39 countries since 1999.

Round 8 surveys (2019/2021) cover 34 countries. Afrobarometer’s national partners in all regions of Africa conduct face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice.

In the most recent survey in Guinea, Stat View International interviewed a nationally representative, random, stratified probability sample of 1,200 adult Guineans in NovemberDecember 2019. A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Previous surveys were conducted in Guinea in 2013, 2015, and 2017.

Below is a copy of the report